The P2P market demonstrates “non-random” randomness

The European continental P2P lending market is subject to localized randomness, especially in times of crises. analysts studied the exposure of the continental European P2P lending market to the randomization effect. The analysis included 54 European platforms with available statistics on reinvestment volumes. "We ran nearly two dozen statistical criteria to detect patterns such as trend, cyclicality, and seasonality. In fact, the absence of these patterns is the main feature of randomness." - platform specialists explain the approach.

The study found market patterns such as a non-linear trend, deterministic 10-month seasonality and 2-year cyclicality. "This is enough to speak about the “non-random” nature of the industry's behavior". - the experts comment. 

But at the same time there are periods of localized randomness in the P2P market. In the aggregate of the test results, these are periods from September 2019 to August 2020 and from September 2021 to August 2022. "In a sense, these were "black swans" that changed investors' expectations and their strategies."  - the specialists add.

Overall, The European P2P market is expected to continue its systematic development in 2024. specialists also note that the current increased volatility may intensify the impact on the randomness of market behavior.

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