Traditional investments show initial signs of recovery

At the end of the third quarter of 2023, the performance of some major investment markets entered positive territory. However, further full recovery of the global market may be quite protracted. analysts have compared the yields of European continental P2P lending platforms to other financial instruments* based on 2018 to Q3 2023 data.

According to the study results, commodities and stocks are showing positive numbers. While the former has just come out of the “doldrums”, estimates of annual growth rates for stocks are above trend: the real yield increased from -16.81% in Q2 to 0.53% in Q3 2023. 

The first place among instruments with negative yields is occupied by cryptocurrency. "Crypto is in the stage of waiting for the so-called halving, which is to occur in 2024, and the approval of the U.S. SEC to issue a number of spot ETF funds. These two factors point to the imminent start of a “bull cycle” in the crypto market." - the specialists comment.

Following the cryptocurrency are the global real estate market and precious metals. "Despite solid growth over the last year, the trend estimate of annual yields on real estate investments is at -16.2%," - the experts add. - "For precious metals, in general, it is difficult to give unambiguous forecasts. While gold is at a historic high, other metals are in the ranks of “outsiders”, which makes the average yield of the asset group negative."

It is worth noting the behavior of the bond and deposit market. Both instruments have reached their historical maximum. However, while deposits remain an attractive risk-free instrument, in the case of the debt market the level of risk is quite high and real yields are still negative.

"As for P2P investments, the average return of continental European platforms increased by 0.2% in Q3 to reach 10.6%. With such a trend the P2P instrument looks like a good alternative for bonds and deposits in terms of yield. The other part of the financial market is unlikely to bring stable returns over a six-month to one-year horizon". - the analysts summarize.

* The analysis included: European P2P market, MSCI All Country World index, 10Y World Bonds Yield, TR Corecommodity CRB index, S&P Global Property, S&P GSCI Precious Metals, Deposit Rates, Cryptocurrency Market.

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