The fixed income market, represented by P2P lending, bank deposits, and bonds, continues to demonstrate stability in 2025 amid high volatility in the global economy.
The yield on P2P lending has remained at 11-12% per annum for over a year, which is significantly higher than bank deposit rates (4.5-4.75%) and global bonds (5.0-5.5% for 10Y World Bonds Yield). “At the same time, deposits, despite their low returns, remain popular because of capital preservation guarantees, especially in conditions of moderate inflation,” the platform's experts comment.
Variable income markets are recovering from the crises, but with noticeable diversification across sectors.
Stocks (MSCI All Country World Index) are showing steady growth of 11-14% per annum. This is due to the Fed's more flexible monetary policy.
Commodity markets are showing mixed dynamics. The CRB index has been hovering around zero for a year and a half. Despite its growing capitalization, the cryptocurrency market remains a risky but highly attractive instrument. The standard deviation of returns exceeds 40%, and the correlation with stocks is increasing.
When discussing future prospects, the experts note that fixed-income instruments may generate lower returns in inflationary conditions. If inflation does not slow down, the Fed may continue to tighten its policy, which will hit expected inflation estimates and, as a result, expected market returns. Commodities and crypto will remain niche assets for those seeking huge risks/returns, while investors may shift their focus to bonds with yields above inflation.
Disclaimer: Please note that all information provided in this material is not intended as personalized investment advice. All conclusions are based on data obtained from publicly available sources and represent solely the subjective opinion of Robo.cash.
